基于潜力分析-用水解译的山地城市水资源承载预警

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关键词：山地城市；潜力分析；用水解译；水资源承载力；预警中图分类号：TV213.4 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.01.012引用格式：，，，等.基于潜力分析-用水解译的山地城市水资源承载预警[J].人民黄河，2026，48（1）：75-83.

Water Resources Carrying Early Warning of Mountain Cities Based on Potential Analysis and Water Interpretation

LIU Yali， LU Tao，LIU Fang， ZHANG Zhen，YAN Jingjing，XU Xu，WU Fangfang，CHEN Min，ZHANG Mengqi， ZHANG Chi

（KeyLaboratoryofMontoring，EvaluationandEarlyWamingofTeritorial SpatialPlanningImplementationofMinistryofNatural Resources，Chongqing Planning& Design Institute，Chongqing 4O1147，China）

Abstract：Integatigtheieasofteritalspatialsysteplaingandeoncetofsientificatermanageent，tissudyoucteda potentialanalysisbasedonlocalwatertrans-boundarywater，ndrlaedwaterasariplesupprt，andesoueolog，ndscurity asatripleconstraint.Italsobuiltacomprehensivewatercalulationthatintegratesthreedimensions（population，conomyandsociety）， three key sectors （living，production and ecology），and three water use growth scenarios （ ， medium and low）. It constructed an evaluationandearlywagtodfotwatengapacityfouainitssdotetialalsisdatertepreatcal studiesshowthatthwatercarigcapacityandrlainglvelofmountaiiaeloselyrelatedtotecalwatersoucsdowment，tras-bondaryateresoesoditioatrsousaloatioapacit，ateroloicalprotectioevelwateruitysu ancerequirements，ocialecooicvelopetvelandwaterowthpate，uctuatingpddooertndftlt inspatialTewaeaingapacityoftvllareasalongteiveswiproductivityvelisgndeearlwanvelislow. Incontrast，hilldoaosreasdstatfroes，ichedegogidrbatiobitatersouag pacityandhigharlyanglevelsFurteore，tewaterrsourcscangcapacityunderaigpedwaterusegrowthsenaissiificantlylowerthanthatundermediumorlowspeedscenarios.Thissituationreadilyleadstowaterscareregionsexcedingthewaterresources warningthresoldsednepipleof“singfspesonwatersoue，iessytoientfallyarouteeaan andearlywangofwatersousargapacityderlyprootethioalspatialplagof“dtegdmandbyatedact ingbywater”nd“pririgtoseatiolagsatialstrtio”，tfallemostratesibliofa advantagesofwateouciacetasandgoalaloatio，ndeliitthjintwatergeareasoablyndjtlyla watersecurityframeworkof jointcarryingandadjusting，intensiveandeficient，and harmonious between peopleand water.

Key Words：mountain city；potential analysis；water interpretation；water resourcescarrying capacity；early warning

0 引言

水资源承载力评价是以可持续发展为原则、以获得最合理的经济社会与生态环境效益为目的，探讨水资源可承载的最大规模[1-3]。（剩余11333字）