极端枯水条件下流域经济社会分层需水分析方法

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关键词：极端枯水；刚性需水；刚弹性需水；弹性需水；底线需水；黄河流域

中图分类号：TV213.4；TV88.1 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.01.011

Methodology for Analyzing Stratified Social-Economic Water Demand in Basin During Extreme Low-Flow Conditions

SHANG Wenxiu，WANG Yu， ZHENG Xiaokang （1.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.，Ltd.， Zhengzhou 450003， China; 2.Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin，Ministry of Water Resources， Zhengzhou 450003，China； 3.Yellow River Conservancy Commission， Zhengzhou 450003，China）

Abstract：Inodertohancetecapabiltofwaterresoucesscurityasuanciverbasinsduringextreelowfloconditios，ispapercategordociooicaterndtoesigidslntdible.teor，tfdeviab linewaterdmandwitinthigiddemandunderextreelow-owcoditios.Tispaperstablishdherarcicalprinciplesandtes oldidetificatiometodlogfoaterdemandatachnduaitatielypresetdtestratifdoutomesforthteialcooc wateruseintheYelowRiverBasinfortheyear22andtheprojectedsocialeconomicwaterdemandfor35.heresultsidicatethatthe total social-economic water use in the Yellow River Basin in 2022 was 40.941 billion m3 ，with the bottom-line，rigid，resilient，and flexible water use accounting for 61.73% ， 76.03% ， 11.40% ，and 12.57% ，respectively.It is projected that water demand will increase to 51.089 billion m3 by 2035，with the corresponding proportions being 61.26% ， 74.12% ， 16.26% ，and 9.62% . Under the inflow scenario of the consecutivelow-flowperiodfrom1991to002，eitherthe22botom-lnewaterusenothe235botom-lnewaterdemandcouldbefly met.Thisrefstsigfcantriskofisruptntoeotom-lnwaterdmandinteYlloRiverBasinduingextrelow-fowods. Thereforeitispeatieteleateeostuctioofteasiatetaserpestaeefegadingapaliyforte most basic water supply security in the Yellow River Basin under extreme low-flow conditions.

Keywords：extremelow-flow；rigidwaterdemand；resilientwaterdemand；flexiblewaterdemand；botom-linewaterdemand；Yellow River Basin

水资源短缺是长期制约全球可持续发展的关键问题之一，在气候变化、城市化进程加速及水污染等多重因素的综合影响下，未来水危机形势将更加严峻[1-3]在可供水量有限的条件下，将需水划分为不同层次并依据其重要性确定供水优先顺序，已成为水资源配置所广泛采用的核心策略[4-6]。（剩余11666字）