政策性农业信贷担保对粮食生产韧性的影响

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中图分类号：F307.11 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1004-390X（2026）02-0099-09

引文格式：，.政策性农业信贷担保对粮食生产韧性的影响[J].云南农业大学学报（社会科学），2026，20（2）：99-107.DOI： 10.12371/j.ynau（s）.202512090

The Impact of Policy-oriented Agricultural Credit Guarantees on Grain Production Resilience

ZHANG Hao， LIANG Xueping

（School of Economics， Tianjin University of Commerce， Tianjin ， China）

Abstract： Enhancing grain production resilience is not only essential for addressing multiple risk challenges but also a key safeguard for achieving national food security objectives. Based on provincial panel data from China covering 2O04-2O23，this study measured grain production resilience using the entropy method and employed an intensity-based difference-in-differences model to examine the impact and underlying mechanisms of policy-oriented agricultural credit guarantees.The results indicated that such guarantees significantly enhanced grain production resilience， and this conclusion remains robust under a series of robustness checks.Mechanism analysis showed that policy-oriented credit guarantees improved resilience by optimizing the alocation structure of fiscal expenditures， increasing the level of agricultural mechanization， and facilitating land transfer. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the positive effect is more pronounced in major grain-producing regions and in areas with lower levels of financial development. Acoordingly， relevant policy recommendations are proposed for the reference of decision-making reference.

Keywords： policy-oriented agricultural credit guarantee; grain production resilience; food security; intensity difference-in-differences

粮食安全是“国之大者”。（剩余10880字）