云南蔬菜出口东盟六国的贸易影响因素与效率研究

——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

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中图分类号：F742 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1004-390X（2026）01-0168-09

Abstract： Based on an improved trade gravity model， this study empirically analyzed the influencing factors and trade potential of Yunnan vegetable exports to the six ASEAN countries （Malaysia， Vietnam，Thailand， Singapore，Laos，and Cambodia） from 2016 to 2023.The research found that the scale of Yunnan vegetable industry has continued to expand， but its exports have shown a fluctuating downward trend. In 2023， the export value dropped to 593 million US dollars，and its share of the national total declined to 5.67% .The empirical results indicated that the growth of Yunnan's GDP and the population base of the trading countries have a significant positive driving effect on vegetable exports， while geographical distance inhibited trade development through transportation costs. Additionally， the COVID-19 pandemic had a short-term negative impact on exports through supply chain disruptions.The analysis of trade efciency and potential further revealed significant heterogeneity among the target markets： Vietnam was the only“potential-exploiting” market among the six countries， with relatively the best export performance; while Thailand，Malaysia， Singapore， Laos，and Cambodia all were the“potential-huge” markets， suggesting that the overallefficiency of Yunnan vegetable exports was relatively low and there was huge room for improvement.To enhance the competitiveness of Yunnan vegetable exports， it is recommended to strengthen cross-border infrastructure connectivity， promote strategic and policy alignment based on the above market classification， and implement precise development strategies for different types of markets， so as to fully unleash the export potential of Yunnan vegetable and provide policy references for the high-quality development of China-ASEAN agricultural product trade.

Keywords： Yunnan vegetable exports; ASEAN market; trade gravity model; trade potential; influencing factors

近年来，随着中国—东盟自由贸易区升级及《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的深入实施，中国与东盟农产品贸易规模持续扩大，贸易便利化水平显著提升[2。（剩余10632字）