长江流域农村家庭WEF与农业效率耦合协调及影响因素研究

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关键词：长江流域；水—能源—食物系统；农业全要素生产率；耦合协调度；LASSO-XGBoost-SHAP模型中图分类号：F327 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1004-390X（2026）01-0132-08

Abstract： The synergy between the Water-Energy-Food （WEF） system and agricultural total factor productivity in the Yangtze River Basin is crucial for high-quality agricultural development.Taking 10 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Basin as the research subjects， this study combined the panel entropy-weighted TOPSIS model， super-efficiency SBM model， and coupling coordination degree model to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the coupling coordination between rural household water-energy-food and agricultural total factor productivity from 2006 to 2022. The LASSO-XGBoost-SHAP model was used to identify key driving factors. The research results indicated that the coupling coordination degree in the basin showed a continuous upward trend， with a significant acceleration in growth after 2O18.In terms of spatial characteristics，the coordination degree in the downstream region has long been leading， the midstream region has leaped from moderate imbalance to primary coordination， and the upstream region has shifted from polarization to synergistic improvement. Regarding the driving mechanisms， per capita GDP was the core driving force across the entire basin， but there was significant regional heterogeneity： the downstream region relied on the synergy between economy and technology，the midstream region was constrained by Water resource management， and the upstream region faced ecological constraints. Based on these findings， recommendations are proposed to promote efcient water-saving technologies and optimize cross-regional water resource allocation， bridge the upstream-downstream gap and reduce regional disparities， and establish a basin-wide coordination mechanism with innovative diferentiated technical tools.

Keywords： Yangtze River Basin; Water-Energy-Food system; agricultural total factor productivity; coupling coordination degree; LASSO-XGBoost-SHAP Model

长江流域作为中国经济发展的核心地带与重要的生态安全屏障，承载着全国 40% 的人口、45% 的GDP总量和 35% 的农业产值，是国家粮食安全的关键保障区域。（剩余11259字）