暴雨预警标准下重庆小时降水特征与预警评估

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中图分类号：P456.1;P457.6 文献标识码：A文章编号：1673-9868（2026）03-0155-14

DOI： 10.13718/j. cnki. xdzk. 2026. 03.014

Characteristics of Hourly Precipitation and Evaluation of Early Warning Signals in Chongqing under Rainstorm Warning Standards

LI Qin1'²， ZHANG Yong1'²， LIU Yuchun1，2，ZHANG Yan1'²， CHEN Shiji1，3

1.China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy， Chongqing 401147，China；

2.Chongqing Meteorological Observatory，Chongqing 401147，China；

3. Chongqing Meteorological Service Center， Chongqing 401147，China

Abstract： Based on rainstorm early warning signal data and hourly precipitation observation data from 1 967 automatic weather stations in Chongqing during 2Ol4 to 2O22，this study identified hourly precipitation events meeting rainstorm early-warning standards （HPE-MREWS）. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of HPE-MREWS and early warning signals were analyzed，and the quality of early-warning signals was evaluated. The results indicated that station-based HPE-MREWS were concentrated from June to September，with a pronounced nocturnal peak，and were primarily distributed in mountainous areas of the northeast，southeast，and regions such as Hechuan-Beibei，which exhibited significant seasonality， nocturnal and regional characteristics. Yellow rainstorm warning signals were frequently issued， particularly in the main urban areas，whereas red warning signals were underutilized. This discrepancy does not align with the actual probability of disaster occurrence.Although the effective warning lead time exceeds 1 hour in all districts and counties except Yuzhong district （0.7h） ，the warning hit rates and critical success index were low overall. Specifically， excessive warnings with a high false alarm rate were observed in the main urban areas，whereas warning shortages with numerous omissions occured in the mountainous areas of the southeast. It is recommended to optimize very short-term forecasting models for complex terrains，enhance the capability to identify extreme precipitation events， and reasonably increase the frequency of red warning issuance， thereby strengthening decision-making support for disaster prevention and mitigation.

Key words： torrential rain; early-warning signal; quality assessment; complex terrain

在全球变暖的背景下，极端降水事件频发，近年来日尺度、次日尺度、小时尺度甚至次小时尺度的极端降水事件发生频率或强度呈增加趋势[1-3]，导致山洪、泥石流等次生地质灾害激增[1，4-7]。（剩余13219字）