内蒙古自治区农业碳排放时序特征与碳达峰路径分析

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关键词：农业碳排放；STIRPAT模型；情景分析；内蒙古自治区中图分类号：X322；F327 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672-2043（2025）11-3015-10 doi：10.11654/jaes.2024-1068

Abstract：Thisstudyinvestigatestetempralcaracteristicsoficulturalarboeisiosandpotealpathwaysfachevingbon peaking inInnerMongoliaAutonomousRegion，whileproposingpolicyrecommendations tosupportlw-carbonagriculturaldevelopent. Utilizingtheemissonfactorapproachwequantifiedagriculturalcarbonemissionsfrom2to2O22andemployedtheSTRPAT （StochasticImctsbgessiopulaicdo）deltooectisstrsforo analysiswasconductedtocomparebaselinandlow-arbondevelopmentpaters.heresultsdemonstratethattotalagriculturalarbon emissionsexhbiedafuctuatinguwardtrendduring2o222hilemisionintensityshowedsubstantialductionCoitio emisionsprimarlyriginatedfromchemicalfertilizeraplication，whereaslivestockproductionemissionseredominatedbyteric fermentation.Projectionsrevealthatbaselineconditioswouldleadtocontiuousemisiongrowthreaching51.61miliontonsby00. Undertheowaboeriosioseexpedtoakat4.6illotsin5fllodydaleg9% reductiocompared tobaselineprojectionsby2030.Strategicrecommendationsemphasizeproductionpatemoptimizationorganic ferilizerpromotion，andhancedpolicysupporttofclitatelowcarbontransformationinInerMongolia’sagiculturalstorThe researchconcudestatsyergisticimplementationoftchologicaliovationandpolicyinterventioscouldunlocksubstantialo reduction potential，itisexpected toprovidearoleforthe transformationoflow-carbon agricultureacross thecountry.

Keywords ：agricultural carbon emissions; STIRPAT model; scenario analysis; Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

全球温室气体的人为排放是导致气候变暖的主要原因，并可能引发一系列极端天气事件。（剩余15930字）