未来气候情景下中国2030年土壤阳离子交换量预测

——基于机器学习模型

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关键词：环境变量；XGBoost；SHAP；不确定性分析；阳离子交换量中图分类号：X144；S126 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672-2043（2025）11-2852-12 doi：10.11654/jaes.2025-0470

Abstract：Inordertomakeanaccurate predictionof soilcationexchangecapacity（CEC）underfutureclimatescenarios，this study systematicallycomparedtheperformanceoffvemachinelearing models inpredictigsoilCECacross China.Thesemodelswerebasedon a multi sourceenvironmentalcovariatedataset.Additionaly，thesudyquantifidthespatialdiferentiationchracteristicsofoilCEC contentinChinain2O3OudertheSSP-4.5andSSP3-7.Ofutureclimatescenaros，alongwiththespatialuncertaintyoftheprediction results.ThefindingssuggestthattheXGBoostmodeldemonstratesotialperformanceacrossallmetrics.TheprimarydriversofCECare thus determined as soil organic carbon（contribution rate of 18.41% ）and clay content（ 18.03% ），followed by temperature，elevation，and pH（all with contribution rates exceeding 10% ）.Among these factors，soil organic carbon，clay content，total nitrogen，precipitation，slope， andhumanactivityindexhavebenshontopositivelyimpactonCEC，whiletheremainingfactorsexhibitinibitoryefects.Projections indicatethatundertheSP2-4.5cenario，soilCECcontentwillremainstablebyO3O;udertheSSP-7.0senario，CECotetill increase to 17.48cmol⋅kg-1 .Fromaspatial distribution perspective，The Northeast Region has the highest CEC content，followed by The SouthChinaRegin，TheSouthwestChinaRegion，TheCentralChinaRegion，andTheNorthChinaRegion，withTheNorthwestRegion havingthelowestTeorallunceraintyinredictiosuderthoenaissilarutgioaldierecsistUnde 4.5scenario，thehighestuncertaintyisobservedinTheEastChinaRegionandTheSouthChinaRegion，withthelowestinTeNorth ChinaRegion.UndertheSP3-7.Oscenario，TheCentralChinaReginhasthewidestconfidenceinterval.InsummarytheXGBoost modelistheoptimalmodelforpredictingsoilCECunderfutureclimatescenarios.Thespatialdistributionanduncertaintyanalysisofsoil CEC content in China in 2O3O demonstrate significant regional variations.

Keywords：environmental variables; XGBoost; SHAP; uncertainty analysis; cation exchange capacity

土壤污染是威胁农业生产的重要环境问题，其中重金属和有机污染物是耕地中最主要的污染类型。（剩余16539字）