冻害对山东省茶叶产量的影响评估

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摘要：为科学评估山东省茶树冻害影响情况，将山东省茶树冻害分为越冬期和春茶期冻害两类，分别找出影响两类冻害发生的主要气象因子，通过多元线性回归分别建立了山东省茶树越冬期和春茶期冻害减产预测模型。经验证，所得预测模型准确率较高，可以用来指导茶农科学防冻，提高茶叶产量和品质，推动山东省茶产业高质量发展。

关键词：冻害；春茶；减产率；产量模型；影响评估

中图分类号：S571.1；S425                                    文献标识码：A                                       文章编号：1000－3150（2024）09-41-5

Evaluation of the Impact of Freezing Damage on

Tea Production in Shandong Province

ZHU Xiuhong1，2， ZHENG Fang3， TIAN Hongliang4

1. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong， Ji'nan 250031， China;

2. Wulian County Meteorological Bureau， Wulian 262300， China; 3. Convenience Service Center in Xumeng Town，

Wulian  262315， China; 4. Wulian County Science and Technology Bureau， Wulian 262399， China

Abstract： In order to scientifically evaluate the impact freezing damage on tea plants in Shandong， the freezing damage to tea plants was divided into two categories： overwintering period and spring tea period. The main meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of the two types of freezing damage in Shandong were identified， and multiple linear regression was performed to establish prediction models for the reduction rate of freezing damage during the overwintering and spring tea periods in Shandong. The accuracy of the prediction models was verified to be high. The results indicate that forecasting models and influencing factors can be used to guide tea farmers to scientifically prevent freezing， improve tea yield and quality， and promote the high-quality development of Shandong's tea industry.

Keywords： frost damage， spring tea， production reduction rate， yield model， impact assessment

目前山东省茶园总面积2.7万hm2，年产值40亿元，是我国北方最大的茶叶产区。（剩余5501字）