外科老年病人普适性谵妄风险预测模型的构建及验证

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Construction and validation of a universal delirium risk prediction model for elderly surgical patients

ZHANG Dandan1，GUO Yuanjun1，TANG Shunluan1，ZHOU Yuhua1，ZHANG Ping2* 1.Shantou Central Hospital，Guangdong 5150oo China;2.School of Nursing，Southern Medical University *Corresponding Author ZHANG Ping，E-mail：44729293@qq.com

AbstractObjective：Toonstructauniversalpredictionofpostoperativedeliuminelderlysurgicalpatients （UPRE-PODES）andverify its predictive effect.Methods：A total of 1 25O patients aged ⩾60 years who visited the Department of Orthopedics，Gastrointestinal Surgery，CardiothoracicSurgery，andOncologySurgeryofShantou CentralHospitalfromMay1toOctober31，2O22were retrospectively selected as the research subjects. They were divided into a training set Λn=833 ）and avalidation set （n=417 ）.A risk predictionmodelwasestablishedbyLogisticregresson，anditspredictivevaluewasverified.Theregressioncoeficientsofeach independentinfluencingfactorwereconvertedintoasimplescoringtable.Results：Theoptialiticalvalueofthesimplesoringtable generated by the constructed UPRE-PODES was 5 points.When the model score was ⩾5 points，the patient was considered to be at riskof postoperativedelirium（POD）.Theareaunderthereceiveroperatingcharacteristiccurve（AUROC）of thetrainingsetand validation set were 0.925 and O.918，respectively. The χ2 values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were 10.797 and 3.361， respectively，both P>0.05 .The sensitivity was 84.4% and 83.5% ，respectively.The specificity was 87.3% and 84.3% ，respectively. The prediction accuracy was 86.8% and 84.2% ，respectively. Conclusions： The constructed UPRE-PODES has a good prediction effect and can be used in diferent surgical patients，which is conducive to the homogeneous management of POD. Keywordsuniversality;delirium; prediction model; elderlypatients;surgery;nursing; influencing factors

摘要 目的：构建一个可在不同外科老年病人中应用的普适性谵妄风险预测模型并验证其预测效果。（剩余17205字）