糖尿病周围神经病变风险预测模型的系统评价与Meta分析

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基金项目 贵州省卫生健康委科学技术基金项目，编号：gzwkj2024-062

作者简介 赵思思，护士，硕士研究生在读

* 通讯作者 张春玲，E-mail：1277319952@qq.com

引用信息 赵思思，张春玲，陈露，等.糖尿病周围神经病变风险预测模型的系统评价与Meta分析［J］.循证护理，2025，11（1）：7-12.

Abstract Objective：To systematically evaluate the quality of risk prediction models for diabetic peripheral neuropathy（DPN）and provide a reference for improving existing models and establishing new models.Methods：Literature related to the construction of risk prediction models for DPN were retrieved from PubMed，the Cochrane Library，EMbase，Web of Science，CBM，CNKI，VIP，and WanFang Database from the establishment of the database to April 1，2024.The quality of the included prediction model studies was assessed using the PROBAST tool，and the key predictors were Meta-analyzed using RevMan 5.4 software.Results：A total of 12 articles were included in this study involving 23 380 patients ，and 19 DPN risk prediction models were constructed.Among them，11 articles were calibrated and 9 articles were validated.The PROBAST evaluation results showed that all 12 articles were at high risk of bias.The predictive factors mainly included basic factors，disease factors，and laboratory test indicators.Meta-analysis results showed that glycosylated hemoglobin（OR=1.54，95%CI 1.38⁃1.72，Z=7.55，P<0.001），age（OR=1.10，95%CI 1.00⁃1.20，Z=2.06，P=0.040），and diabetic course（OR=1.22，95%CI 1.14⁃1.30，Z=5.95，P<0.001）were predictive factors for DPN.Conclusions：current evidence shows that the prediction model of DPN is still in the exploratory stage.In the future，a prediction model with low bias risk and strong applicability should be selected or developed according to the actual clinical situation，and its prediction effect should be continuously monitored in practical applications.At the same time，medical staff should pay high attention to the patient's glycated hemoglobin level，age，and course of disease，in order to detect DPN earlier and take targeted prevention and treatment measures.

Keywords  diabetic peripheral neuropathy；risk prediction model；systematic review；Meta-analysis；evidence-based nursing

摘要  目的：对糖尿病周围神经病变（DPN）风险预测模型的质量进行系统评价，为现有模型的改进和新模型的建立提供参考依据。（剩余8839字）