玉树地区24 h最高、最低气温预报指标研究

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摘要 由于青藏高原天气的复杂性和特殊的地理环境，且受限于站点建设分布，各家模式对青海的预报准确率偏低，其中玉树地区的可预报性最低，参考性最差。近年来，玉树地区的预报准确率也一直偏低，人工订正能力有限，因此，为提高本地预报的准确率，开展了本地化客观预报方法研究。

关键词 高原气温；预报指标；本地化

中图分类号：P423.3+1 文献标识码：B 文章编号：2095–3305（2023）05–0083-03

Study on Forecast Indexes of 24-Hour Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Yushu Region

Qu Xin-yao （Yushu Prefecture Meteorological Bureau， Yushu， Qinghai 815000）

Abstract Due to the complexity of the weather on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the special geographical environment， and limited to the construction and distribution of stations， the accuracy of various models to forecast Qinghai is low， of which Yushu area has the lowest predictability and the worst reference. In recent years， the forecast accuracy of Yushu area has also been low， and the ability of manual correction is limited. Therefore， in order to improve the local forecast accuracy， it is necessary to carry out the research of localized objective forecast methods.

Key words Plateau temperature; Forecast indicators; Localization

由于青藏高原天气的复杂性和特殊的地理环境，且受限于站点的建设分布，各家模式对青海的预报，尤其是青南地区预报的准确率偏低，多家首席团队对此展开了研究[1-3]，发现模式对玉树地区的可预报性最低，参考性最差。（剩余5255字）