数字经济与中国制造业全球价值链攀升

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中图分类号：F49 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2025）06-0722-10

Digital Economy and the Upgrading of China' s Manufacturing Industry in the Global Value Chain

GUO Jiang， CAI Mingfeng

（BusinessSchool，UniversityofhanghaiforScienceandTechnology，hanghaiOoo93，China）

Abstract： This study analyzed the influence of digital economy development on the global value chain （GVC）upgrading of China’ s manufacturing industry，using provincial panel data from 2011 to 2023 and employing nonlinear，threshold，and spatial econometric models.The results indicated： Digital economy development exerts a U-shaped effect on manufacturing export complexity（a trade-structure dimension of upgrading），supported at the 10% level; the turning point is around 8.89. Initially，high digital transformation costs temporarily lower export complexity; however，once digital economic development surpasses this critical point， network and scale efects improve export complexity.There is a thresholdtype difference by Innovation Factor Allocation（ IFA; higher IFA indicates greater misallocation） ： in high-misallocation regions the early negative impact is milder and the turning point occurs earlier（at a digital economy level of approximately 5.51），reflecting a pronounced “spring effect，” which accelerates improvements in export complexity. Digital economy shows clear spatial spillovers： after accounting for regional interactions，the local relationship within the sample becomes approximately linear and positive，while the overall effect is mainly amplified by neighboring provinces and exhibits diminishing marginal returns，being more pronounced in central and western regions， whereas the east benefits primarily from cross-provincial industrial linkages. Therefore，strengthening digital infrastructure，improving cross-regional digital collaboration，and integrating institutional reform with digital technology can more effectively sustain improvements in manufacturing export complexity.

Key words： industrial economics; global value chain; digital economy; spatial econometric model; threshold effect; misallocation of innovation resources; spatial spillover effect

0 引言

近年来，数字经济快速发展，对全球产业分工格局产生了深刻影响。（剩余16048字）