妊娠期社会心理适应水平预测模型的构建及验证

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Construction and verification of risk prediction model for psychosocial adaptation in pregnancy

SHI Qinchuan， LIU Beibei， WANG Qianqian， LI Jinyang， TIAN Yingying*

Women's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University， Nanjing Women and Children's Healthcare Hospital， Jiangsu 210004 China

*Corresponding Author  TIAN Yingying， E⁃mail： tianyingying0000@126.com

Abstract  Objective：To construct and verify a risk prediction model for psychosocial adaptation in pregnancy.Methods：A total of 204 pregnant women in the prenatal clinic of a tertiary grade A hospital in Nanjing city from March to May 2023 were selected as the research objects to establish a prediction model.A total of 136 pregnant women in the prenatal clinic from June to July 2023 were selected as the verification objects.Based on the results of binary Logistic regression analysis，a prediction model was constructed and a Nomogram was drawn.The predictive effect and clinical effectiveness of the model were analyzed by receiver operating curve，Calibration curve and decision curve analysis.Results：Logistic regression results showed that age，employment status，education level and complications were the influencing factors of psychosocial adaptation in pregnancy.The prediction formula was as follows：Logit（P）=-28.220+1.253×age-2.460×education level-4.101×employment status+3.784×complications.The results of verification group showed that the area under the receiver operating curve was 0.786，the specificity was 0.796，and the sensitivity was 0.783.The Calibration curve had more coincidence with the ideal curve.The analysis of decision curve analysis showed that the net benefit value of the application of the prediction model was higher，and the accuracy and stability of the model were better.Conclusions：The established risk prediction model for psychosocial adaptation in pregnancy has good clinical prediction effect，and it can provide reference for early risk identification of abnormal psychosocial adaptation in pregnant women.

Keywords  psychosocial adaptation； pregnancy； prediction model； influencing factors； nursing

摘要  目的：构建妊娠期社会心理适应水平预测模型，并进行验证。（剩余10287字）