前列腺穿刺活检术术后感染的危险因素分析及预测模型建立

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Analysis of risk factors and establishment of a prediction model for infection after prostate biopsy

SUN Penghao，SONG Wei

（Department of Urology，Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University，Jinan 250000，China）

ABSTRACT：Objective To analyze the risk factors leading to infection after prostate biopsy，establish a nomogram prediction model and verify it.Methods Clinical data of 523 patients who underwent ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy at our hospital during Jan.2023 and Jul.2024 were retrospectively analyzed.Patients were divided into an infection group and a non-infection group.Independent risk factors for infection after prostate biopsy were identified with univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses，and a nomogram prediction model was constructed，which was validated with receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve，calibration curve，and decision curve analysis （DCA）.Results Infection occurred in 54 cases （10.3%）.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that age >65 years （OR=3.535，P=0.003），diabetes （OR=5.693，P<0.001），hypoproteinemia （OR=8.936，P<0.001），preoperative urinary tract infection （OR=6.153，P<0.001），puncture needles >12 （OR=4.347，P<0.001），and transrectal puncture （OR=3.701，P<0.001） were independent risk factors for infection.Based on the multivariate logistic analysis results，a risk prediction nomogram model was constructed，with an area under the ROC curve （AUC） of 0.894.The calibration curve and DCA both indicated that the model had high predictive accuracy and clinical decision-making efficiency.Conclusion Age >65 years，diabetes，hypoproteinemia，preoperative urinary tract infection，puncture needles >12，and transrectal puncture are independent risk factors for infection after prostate biopsy.The nomogram prediction model based on these factors helps identify high-risk patients，thereby enabling individualized treatment plans to reduce the incidence of infection.

KEY WORDS：prostate cancer; prostatic biopsy; postoperative infection; nomogram prediction model

摘要：目的 分析前列腺穿刺活检术（PB）患者术后发生感染的危险因素，建立列线图预测模型并进行验证。（剩余10736字）