基于杀伤网评估的美导弹防御体系效能分析

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中图分类号：N945.15 文献标志码：A DOI：10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.04.20

Abstract：To meet the needs of future wars with systematic and inteligent features，modeling and analysis of kill chains/web become a study hotspot in the military field.Quantitative evaluationof kill chains/web in specific combat scenarios provide important references for improving combat effectiveness.This paper focuses on the US misile defense system as the main research object and conducts a system effectiveness analysis based on kill-web evaluation.Firstly，based on typical operational scenarios of the US misile defense system in different periods，a kill-web model based on complex web theory is constructed by distinguishing between intralayer node capabilities and inter-layer node relationships.Secondly，redundancy，risk，and effectiveness are proposed as three quantitative evaluation indicators，and their specific meanings and calculation steps are given. Subsequently，simulation examples of kill-web evaluation are provided for different combat scenarios. Finally，suggestions for system optimization are provided based on the calculation results，verifying the feasibility of the proposed method. The proposed method can provide useful references for the modeling and analysis of kill-web.

Keywords：kill-web；system evaluation；redundancy；risk；effectiveness

0引言

杀伤链概念最早出自美国空军，1996年10月，时任美空军参谋长罗纳德·福格尔曼上将发表著名论段，称“2025年前，发现、定位、跟踪、瞄准地球表面的任何移动目标都将成为现实”1]，表明杀伤链的基本结构。（剩余18136字）