基于韵律法的砀山县汛期分月降水量预测模型研究与应用

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中图分类号 P457;S165 文献标识码A 文章编号 1007-7731（2025）12-0110-05

DOI号10.16377/j.cnki.issn1007-7731.2025.12.026

Research and application of monthly precipitation forecast model in Dangshan County duringfloodseasonbasedon rhythm method

ZHANG Xinran

（Dangshan County Meteorological Bureau，Dangshan 2353Oo， China）

AbstractTo improve the prediction accuracy of precipitation during the flood season in Dangshan County，Anhui Province，data fromthe National Basic MeteorologicalObservation Station in Dangshan County from December 1991 to April 2020，including average temperatureand precipitation from May to Septemberof the following yearhad used，to analyze he correlation （rhythmic relationship）between the monthly average temperature in winter andspring seasons and the precipitation in each monthof the flood season for many years.A prediction model for monthly precipitation during theflood seasonwas established，and the prediction results ofmonthly precipitationduring thefloodseason from 1991 to 2021 were tested.The prediction of precipitation from May to September 202 was applied The results indicated that （1）the model could predictthe monthlyprecipitation during the flood season byusing the monthlyaverage temperatures from December to April of the following yearbefore thefloodseason.（2）In the verificationof monthly precipitation prediction during the flood season from 1991 to 2O21，the accuracy of the model was 87 % 87% ，84 % ， 77% ， and 74% in May，June，July，August，and September，respectively，andthe test accuracy was high，so itcan be used for forecasting.（3）Intheapplicationof precipitationforecasting from Mayto September 2O22，the forecasts forMay，July， August，and September werecompletelycorrect，but theforecast in June was wrong.Theoverallpredictionefect is good and canbe applied to actual meteorological forecasting operations.This article provides supports forflood and drought prevention， water resource management，and agricultural production in the research area and similar regions.

Keywords flood season; precipitation meteorological; rhythmic method; prediction model

气象韵律法是天气预报中的重要依据之一，其基于自然界存在的周期性和韵律性现象，通过对历史数据的分析和挖掘，寻找其中的规律和模式，从而对未来事件进行预测。（剩余4237字）