1990\~2035年东亚地区唇与口腔癌的疾病负担分析及未来预测

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Lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2035： trends of disease burden and future projections

LIU Yitong，ZHAO Ke2，3 WANG Xiaodong2，3

China;3GuangdongProvincialKeyLaboratoryofStomatology，Guangzhou51oo55，China

Abstract：ObjectiveToanalyzethetrendsof disease burdenof lipand oralcancers in East Asia from 1990 to2021and its future projections.Methods Weused the Global Burden of Disease2021 database to conducta comprehensive analysis of diseaseburdendatafromChina（includingiwanProvinceofCina），Japan，epublicofKoreaDemocraticeople'sepublic of KoreaandMongolia.Thedata were stratifiedbyage，genderand majorrisk factors，anda Bayesianage-period-cohort model wasemployed topredict thefuture trends.Results From1990to2021，theburdenoflipandoralcancers inEast Asian countriesexhibitedasteady increase.Taiwan Provinceof China experiencedthemost significant increases in incidence， prevalence，mortalityanddisability-adjustedlifeyears （DALYs），whileMongoliasawadeclineinbothmortalityandDALs. In 2021，Taiwan Province of China reported the highestrates oflipand oralcancer incidence （27.50per 10Oo），prevalence （137.92 per10o0），mortality （9.59 per1000），and DALYs （92.07 person-years per 1000），particularlyamong maleand elderlypopulations.Tobaccouseandalcoholconsumptionsignificantly exacerbated thediseaseburden inTaiwanProvinceof China and Japan. Future projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of lipand oral cancer in China （excluding Taiwan ProvinceofChina）willcontinue torise，whiletheirmortalityratesareexpectedtodeclineinmostregions，ceptfor Taiwan Province of Chinaand DemocraticPeople'sRepublicof Korea.Conclusion Bythe year2035，thedisease burdenoflip andoralcancers inEastAsia isexpected tocontinuetoincrease，especiallyinTaiwan Provinceof China.Toaddresthis chalenge itisssntialtoimplementeective measurstootrolmajoriskfactors，promotearlysreingandesure equitable distribution of healthcare resources.

Keywords： lipandoral cavitycancer;EastAsia; disease burden;risk factors;spatiotemporal trends

唇与口腔癌是全球性的公共卫生问题，其发病率和死亡率存在显著的地理差异。（剩余15584字）