利用期货市场促进棉花产业发展的制约因素研究

——兼论社会资本和中介组织的影响

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Abstract：Objective]Thisstudyaimedtoanalyzetheinfluencingfactorsoffarmers'participationinthefuturesmarketand providereference forusing the futures market topromotethedevelopmentofthecoton industry.[Methods]Atheoretical analysis frameworkwas constructed alongthe lines of "risk aversionmotivation $$ futuresfunctioncognition $$ futuresmarket participationwillngness→futuresmarketparticipationbehavior".TheorderedLogit modelandmultinomialLogit modelwere comprehensivelyusedtoanalyzetheinfluencingfactorsofottonfrmersfuturesmarketparticipationwilingnes，andtheLogit modelwas furtherused todiscusstheinfluenceofsocialcapitalandintermediaryorganizations.[Results]Theresultsshowed that 70% offarmers have heard ofthe futures market，but only 5% offarmers participate in the futures market.Farmers'resource endowmentssuchaseducationlevel，plantingscale，age，aswellasmarketriskavoidancemotivation，futuresfunction cognition，socialitaldtiayaatiolopntvepoantctsootrsaioin thefutures market.[Conclusion]Currently，theproportionoffrmersparticipatinginthefuturesmarketisstillverylow.The mainfactorsthatinhibitcottnfarmersfromparticipatinginthefuturesmarketareinsuficientmotivationtoavoidmarketrisks， unclearunderstandingoffutures functions，lackofdemonstrationguidanceandsocialcapital，andimmaturedevelopmentof intermediary organizations.

Keywords：futuresmarket; cotton industry;social capital; intermediary organizations

自2004年6月1日在郑州商品交易所上市交易以来，我国棉花期货市场取得长足发展。（剩余20242字）