人口老龄化、数字化转型与金融深化：非线性效应与机制

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中图分类号：C924.24；F49；F832 文献标识码：A

文章编号：1007-5097（2025）08-0094-12

Population Aging，Digital Transformation， and Financial Deepening： NonlinearEffectandMechanism

YU Yuxinla²，PENG Wuyi

（1.a.Schoolof Economics and Finance;b.InstituteofLanguage Sciences，Shanghai InternationalStudies University， Shanghai 200083， China; 2.Shanghai Innovation Policy Evaluation and Research Center，Shanghai 2Ooo3o，China）

Abstract：Basedon provincial paneldataof China from 2Oo1 to 2O23，thisarticleconstructs athree-sectordynamic general equilibriummodel toreveal therelationshipsamong populationaging，digital transformation，and financial deepening.According to the research，there is a"U-shaped" relationship betweenpopulation agingand financial depening.Digital transformation strengthensthisrelationship byreducing risk premiumsand enhancingcolateral liquidity.Mechanism analysis indicates thatpopulation aging exerts anonlinear impacton financial deepeningthrough the capital substitution efectand thesavingsrateadjustments.Heterogeneityanalysisreveals that the effctof aging on financialdeepeningatdiferentstagespresentsa"U-shaped"patternof "promotion-inhibition-promotion"，which is morepronouncedinregionswithlowfinancingconstraints，developedeconomies，higherlevelsofurbanization，andhigh industrial structure transformation.Theresearch conclusion provides theoretical andpractical basis foraddressng the aging challenges， optimizing financial resource allocation，and promoting high-quality economic development.

Key words： population aging; financialdeepening; digitalization; nonlinear efects; three-sector DSGE model

一、引言及文献综述

截至2023年底，中国65岁及以上人口已达2.17亿，占总人口的 15.4% ，中国已进入中度老龄化社会。（剩余17018字）