社区慢性病老年人社会衰弱风险预测模型的构建及验证

打开文本图片集

AbstractObjective：Toconstructthesocialfrailtyrisk predictionmodelforelderlypeoplewithchronidseasesicommunities，and to explorethepredictivevalueofintrinsiccapacityforsocialfrailtyamongthem.Methods：Atotalof785elderlypatientswithchronic diseases inthecommunities，whoweresurveyedinLunandistrictofTangshancityfromJuly2O24toMay2O25，wereselectedas researchsubjects.LASSOregressonwasusedtosreenthevariables.Logisticregressonanalysiswasconductedtoanalyzethe influencingfactors.Acolumnchart wasdrawn，andabaselinemodel withoutintrinsicabilityvariablesandapredictionmodelincluding intrinsiccapacityvaableswereconstructed.Results：Tedetectionateofsocialfraltyamogcommunitydwelingelderlywithonic diseases was 23.69% .The results ofLogistic regression analysis showed thatage，educationallevel，durationofchronic disease，level ofe-healthliteacytiactionitomityublcvices，fmilyuction，nditrisicapacityrethueningcoo social frailty in community-dwelling elderly with chronic diseases（all P<0.05 ）.Two models were established，one without the intrinsic abilityvariableandtheotherwithteintrinsicabilityvariable.Theresultsshowedtatthepredictionmodelhadsignficantlyiproved reclasificationabiltyanddiscriminativeabiltycomparedtothebaseliemodel.TheareaundertheROCcurveofthepredictiomodel trainingsetandvalidationsetwasO828andO.856respectivelyTeDCAcurveindicatedthat temodelhadgoodclinicalpracticability.

Conclusions：Thesocialfraltyriskpredictionmodelforelderlypeoplewithchronicdiseasesinthecommunitieshadcertainpredictive eficacy.ItcouldusedtoidentiftheisofsocialfrailtyilderlypeoplewithhonicdiseasesintecommunitisaearlystageIt could provide basis for taking timely preventive and intervention measures.

Keywordscommunities;chronic disease;social frailty;prediction model; intrinsic capacity

我国老龄化趋势日益加重，慢性病已成为制约老年人健康、导致老年人残疾和死亡的重要因素1，不仅影响健康状态和生活质量，还会增加经济和心理负担。（剩余9687字）