基于可拓云模型的上海市洪涝韧性评价研究

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中图分类号：TV87 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-9235（2025）11-0075-10

.基于可拓云模型的上海市洪涝韧性评价研究[J].人民珠江，2025，46（11）：75-84.

Evaluationof Flood Resilience in Shanghai Based on Extension Cloud Model

LIChen’，DUANYonghui'，LIBaojian²

Engineering，Henan UniversityofTechnology，Zhengzhou 45OoO1，China; 2.Collegeof Water Resources，North ChinaUniversity of WarterResourcesand Electric Power， Zhengzhou 45OO46， China）

Abstract：ThisstudyaimstoconstructafloodresilienceevaluationindexsystemforShanghaibasedontheDPSIRmodel，revealing thedynamiccharacteristicsofurbanfloodresiliencethroughquantitativeaessmentsandprovdingascientificbasisfrenhancingthe urbanflood preventioncapabilitiesanddealingwithflooddisasters.BasedontheDPSIRmodel，theevaluationsystemencompasseda totalof22idcatorsossfivimesio：dvers，ressre，ateipact，ndspse.alticerahprocss（a employedtocalculatetheweightsoftheindicators，andtheextensioncloudmodelwasintroducedtoconductacomprehensive assessmentofShanghai'sfloodresiliencefrom2O15to2O23.Theresultsindicatethatthefloodresiliencelevelin Shanghai has decreasedfrom"moderate"in2015—2016to"low"in2O17，beforerisingto"high"andremainingstableafter2018．Inermsof resiliencebydimension，Shanghai'sfloodresiliencehasgraduallevolvedfromanunbalancedstructuretoamorebalancdstate. Specifically，tersilienceoftedriverdimensionremainsrelativelystable，whiletepressurendstatedimensionsehbitsiilar fluctuations.Teimpactdimesiomaintainsastableighlevelandtheesponsedimesionsossignificantimprovementspite thesignificantachievementsmadeinfloodresiliencedevelopmentinrecentyears，terelevantauthoritiesofShanghaistillnedto implement measures to enhance comprehensive flood resilience based on identified weaknesses.

Keywords： urban floodresilience;DPSIRmodel;analytic hierarchyprocess; extensioncloud model; Shanghai

全球气候变化加剧城市洪涝灾害风险，对城市安全和可持续发展构成威胁。（剩余10241字）