基于水文变异诊断系统的珠江区水资源时空变异分析

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中图分类号：TV11 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-9235（2025）11-0055-10

.基于水文变异诊断系统的珠江区水资源时空变异分析[J].人民珠江，2025，46（11）：55-64.

Spatio-temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Pearl River Region Based on Hydrological Variation Diagnosis System

HU Caixia’，WANG Renchao²，WENG Shichuang2

1.PearlRiverHydrologyandWaterResourcesSurveyCenter，Guangzhou51O610，China;2.BureauofHydrologyand Wate Resources，Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministryof Water Resources，Guangzhou 51O610，China）

Abstract：Basedontheresultsofthetirdnationalwaterresourcessurveyandevaluation，thehdrologicalvariationdiagosissystem was usedtosystematicallydiagosethespatio-temporalvariationofwaterrsouesintePearlRverRegion，andthdrivinfeof variationwasanalyzedTheresultsshowthatheannualaveragesurface waterresourcesinthePearlRiverRegionshowastable trend intermsoftiesersevolutionandthereisnoigniiantvaation.Intesofspatialdstrbution，tesufacewaterresousinthe threesecondaryregionsofthePearliverRegion，namelyNanbeipanRiverRegion，HongliuRiverRegionndYujangRiveregion showavariationinjumpdcline，avariationinjumprse，andawakvariationinjumprisein2Oo1，1992，and1965respetivelyhe comprehensiveatributionanalysisshowsthatclimatefactorsare temainfctorsofregionalwaterresouresvarationThedecreasing variationintheNanbeipanRiverRegion，ismainlyatrbutedtotephasedreductionofthetotalamountofcreasingwaterudete droughtbackgroundinthesouthwest，whiletheincreasing varitionintheHongliuRiverRegionandtheYujiang RiverRegion， corresponds totheincreasingfrequencyandintensityofrainstormandfloodafterthe199sandthefrequentoccurrnceofextreme precipitationeventsafterthe196Os，respectively.ThechangeinunderlyingsurfaceconditionsplaysacertainroleinpromotingthevariationprocessinHongliuRiverandYujiangRiverRegionsTheresearchresultscanprovideimportantsupportandbasisforwater resources management，decision-making，development，and utilization in the Pearl River Region.

Keywords： water resource; climate change; variation diagnosis; variation drive;Pearl River Region

作为维系自然生态系统和支撑社会经济发展的战略性资源，水资源的时空分布特征及其动态变化规律直接关系到区域可持续发展能力。（剩余10713字）