中美经贸摩擦对中国肉牛产业的影响研究

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中图分类号：F326.3 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1004-390X（2025）06-0118-1（

Abstract： China exhibits robust beef consumption demand and a high degree of import dependence. Investigating the impact of trade friction on the beef catle industry is therefore of significant value for achieving high-quality development within the sector. This paper analysed the effects of China-US trade friction on China’s beef industry using the Global Dynamic General Equilibrium Model （GDyn）. The findings indicated： Firstly，the intensity of China-US trade policies significantly affected the structure and prices of the imported beef market， with effects diverging due to product heterogeneity. Under an extreme tariff scenario，a substantial supply gap emerged in the import market for beef products， which domestic production capacity struggled to fill effectively， while domestic beef products simultaneously faced the risk of further price depreciation. Secondly， disparities in the substitutability of intermediate products constrained the domestic capacity from filling the gap; the low elasticity of substitution for high-end products and the vulnerability of intermediate product supply chains collectively amplified the external shock. Thirdly， the intensity of the tariff policy directly influenced the adjustment of the beef product market equilibrium. Extreme tariff policies provoked structural risks in the import market and exacerbated domestic supply-demand imbalances. In contrast， tariff policies implemented following trade negotiations promoted import source diversification， created a stable external environment for the release of domestic capacity， fostered a virtuous interaction between domestic output and product prices， and enhanced the resilience of the product market.

Keywords： China-US trade friction; tariff policy; beef catle industry; global dynamic general equilibrium model

伴随经济快速增长与居民收入水平的提高，亚洲及新兴国家的牛肉消费正经历快速且深刻的变化[。（剩余15427字）