基于空间马尔科夫链的云南省粮食生产韧性空间溢出效应与动态演化研究

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中图分类号：F307.11 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1004-390X（2025）06-0011-09

Abstract： Based on the data of food production resilience of 16 prefecture-level cities in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2023， this study comprehensively used methods such as the entropy method， Theil index， gravity center elipse model，Moran index，and Markov chain to systematically analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and dynamic mechanisms of food production resilience. The study found that， the average value of Yunnan's food production resilience increased from 0.1286 in 2013 to O.4065 in 2023， indicating that the advantages of food production have gradually become prominent. From 2013 to 2016， the standard deviation expanded from 0.0142 to 0.0739， showing obvious regional differentiation. From 2019 to 2023， it dropped to 0.0144， indicating that the later development tended to be balanced. In terms of regions， some prefecture-level cities in western and northern Yunnan had an average resilience of over O.3 due to resource advantages， with a standard deviation of 0.08-0.09.They were relatively stable， with significant spatial diferentiation. Some areas in southern Yunnan had an average value of less than O.25 due to a single industrial structure， with a standard deviation of O.09-0.11. The Volatility was obvious. The spatial distribution was characterized by“stable northwest-southeast axis and agglomeration in core areas". The fluctuation of the center of gravity was related to changes in the weights of ecological and transformative indicators. The resilience development model was gradually transforming into a multi-collborative driven model. In addition， the average global Moran index was O.25， indicating that food production resilience has spatial positive correlation and agglomeration characteristics. The spatial Markov chain showed that， the resilience of neighboring areas affected the transfer.The food production resilience of highresilience areas had a spillover effect on medium and low areas.Based on this， the study put forward policy suggestions such as depening regional industrial collaboration， promoting agricultural technology transformation， optimizing spatial layout，and improving risk prevention and control. It provides decision-making references for enhancing Yunnan's food production resilience and narrowing regional gaps.

Keywords： food production resilience; spatio-temporal characteristics; Spatial Markov chain; regional difference

满足14多亿人口粮食需求是国家治理的民生底线与战略根基。（剩余10640字）