气候变化下车尔臣河径流响应及生态需水研究

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关键词：气候变化；非参数检验；持续性分析；相关分析；生态需水；车尔臣河

中图分类号：P333.1；P467；X143 文献标志码：A

文章编号：1672-2043（2025）12-3211-11 doi：10.11654/jaes.2024-0885

Study on runoff response and ecological water demand under climate change in the Qarqan River basin

WEIGuanghui1，²，HONG Liangpeng²，WANG Luyang²，LIUFeng

（1.SchoolofWaterCoservancyandCivilEnginering，XinjiangAgiclturalUniversityUrumqi3Oo，China;Bureaofinjang TarimRiverBasinManagement，Korla841OOO，China）

Abstract：Basedontherunof，temperature，andprecipitationdataoftheQarqanRiverinXinjiangoverthepast6Oyears，thisstudy systematicallyexplorestheunofresponsecharacteristicsuderclimatechangeandtheguaranteedegreeofcologicalwaterdemandin thebasinbyusingcaicalteortcaleodssuchsoaramericst/Salyis，ndwaveletalsisultssoatr the past6Oyears，runoffandtemperaturehaveshownasignificantincreasingtrend，whilethechangeinprecipitationhasben insignificant;theabruptchangeyearsofrunoffandtemperatureare2oOand1997respectivelyandtheabruptchangepointof precipitation cannot be determined; the Hurst indices （ H） of runoff， temperature，and precipitation are 0.751 4，0.961 9，and 0.732 3 respectively，allofhicharegreaterthanO.5，indicatingthatrunoffandtemperaturewillontinuetoincreaseintefuture，and precipiationwillalsotiuetosucrtainanges;offailyascangelesof1，nd4years，tmperatureinlys changecyclesof7，11nd25yearsandpripiationmanlyashngecyclesof6and28yars;Spamacorelatioaalyisshows thatthecorrelationetwnrunofandmperatre，sellasetweeunndpreipiation，isoselyelated;telogicalwater demand of the basin is 3.58×108m3 ，and after deducting the production water demand，the ecological water demand is fully guaranteed under the condition of multi-year average.

KeyWords：climatechange;non-parametric testing;continuityanalysis;relatedanalysis; ecological waterdemand; QarqanRiver

水资源兼具重要自然资源与经济资源双重属性，是支撑经济社会发展的重要基础。（剩余15550字）