冠心病患者并发心力衰竭风险预测模型的系统评价

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【中图分类号】 R541.4 【文献标识码】A DOI：10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2025.0038

【Abstract】BackgroundHeart failure （HF）isa major chronic condition that significantly impacts humanl health. Coronary heartdisease（CHD）is theleading causeofHF.Developing riskpredictionmodelsforHFinpatientswith CHD is crucialforenablinghealthcareprofesionals toidentifyigh-riskpopulationsandimplementtimelyinterventions.Objective TosystematicallyevaluateriskpredictionmodelsforHFwithCHDinChinesepatientsservingasareferenceforthedvelopment， selection，andeatioofelevantpreictivemoels.etodsI，WanfangData，V，oed，ubde WebofScienceandtheCochraneLibraryweresearchedforrelevantstudiesonriskpredictionmodelsforHFwithCHDinChinese patientsuptoOctober24.Tworeviewersindependentlyscreenedtheliterature，extracteddataandassessedtheriskofiasand applicabilityoftheincluded studiesusing thePredictionModelRiskof BiasAssessmentTool （PROBAST）.ResultsAtotalof 27studieswereincluded，reporting64riskpredictionmodels.Theareaundertheeceiveroperatingcharacteristic（ROC）curve（AUC）orthese modelsrangedfrom0.511to0.989，with63modelsachievinganAUC>0.7，indicatinggoodpredictiveperforance. However，PROBASTassessmentrevealedthatall27studies hadahighriskofbiasandlowapplicability.Keypredictivefactors includedage，leftventricularjectionfraction，istoryofabetes，historyofypertension，N-erminalproB-typeatrretic peptide，and Gensini score.ConclusionThestabilityandexternal validityofexisting risk prediction modelsfor HFwith CHD in Chinese patients require furthervalidationthrough prospective，large-scale studies.Future model development shouldadhere strictly to PROBASTguidelines toensure thedesignand implementationof high-qualitygeneralizable predictive models.

【Key words】Coronary heart disease; Heart failure; Risk prediction model; Systematic review

心力衰竭是多种心血管疾病的终末期表现，因其患病率高、死亡率高、再住院率高和经济负担沉重的显著特征，已成为全球范围内亟待解决的重大公共卫生问题[1]。（剩余19372字）