服务业制度型开放能否提升城市就业水平？

——双重机器学习下服务外包示范城市建设的经验证据

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中图分类号：F719；F249.2 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-5097（2026）02-0064-11

Abstract：Using paneldatafrom282prefecture-levelcitiesandaboveinChinabetween2O06and2O23，thisstudytakes theconstructionof service outsourcingdemonstration citiesasa quasi-natural experiment anduses a dual machine learning model to systematicallinvestigate the impactof institutionalopeningup inthe service industryon the level of urbanemployment.Theresultsshow that institutionalopening upoftheservice industrycan significantly improveurban employment levels.This conclusion remains validafter robustnesstests.Mechanism analysis shows that expanding the degree of trade openness，stimulating innovation and entrepreneurship，and promoting industrial structure upgradingare key ways in which the institutional opening upof the service industry enhances urban employmentlevels.Heterogeneity analysis reveals thatthepromoting efectof the institutional openingup of the service industryon urban employment levels is more pronounced incities southeast of the Hu Line，non-resource-based cities，larger scale cities，andservice industry.The research conclusions providea reference for decision-making in promoting high-quality fullemployment through high level opening.

KeyWords：institutional openingupofthe service industry;serviceoutsourcingdemonstration cities;urbanemployment; dual machine learning;innovation and entrepreneurship

一、引言

就业关乎国计民生、事关千家万户，是扎实推进共同富裕的内在要求，也是建设中国式现代化的重要支撑[1-2]。（剩余17243字）