双循环协调发展时空格局演化及障碍因素识别

——来自长三角与珠三角地区的对比研究

打开文本图片集

中图分类号：TU982；F127 文献标识码：A

文章编号：1007-5097（2026）02-0022-12

Abstract：Thearticle，basedon paneldata from theYangtzeRiver Delta（YRD）andPearlRiver Delta（PRD）regions from 2010to 2023，uses couplingcoordinationmodels，DagumGinicoeffcientanddecomposition，obstacledegree models，and othermethodstocompareandanalyzethespatiotemporal characteristics，spatialdiferences，andobstaclefactorsofthe coordinated developmentof dual circulationbetweenthetworegions.Theresults indicate thatthedevelopment levelof internalandexternalcirculationintheYRDislowerthanthatinthePRD，but thegapinexternalcirculationisnarrowingand thegapininternalcirculationisstabilizing.ThecoordinateddevelopmentlevelofdualcirculationintheYRDislowerthan thatinthePRD，withthegapfirstwideningandthennarowing.Bothregionshaveshiftedfrom"imbalance”to"cordination". The kernel densitycurvesof thetworegions have decreasedand polarizationhas weakened.The mobilityofcoordination type dynamic ransferisrelativelysmall，andtheadjacentupward transferissignificantlyaffectedbyspillver fromneighboring cities.TheoverallandregionaldiferencesintheYRDaresmallertanthoseinthePRD，andthespatialdifferencsbetween thetworegions mainlystemfrominter-provincialorinter-metropolitandiferences.Thecommonobstaclesinthe tworegions areexport volume，import volume，patentauthorizationvolume，andgeneral publicbudgetrevenue.Aditionally，theYRDis more constrained by foreign direct investment，while the PRD is more afected by passenger volume.

KeyWords：dualcirculation;coordinateddevelopment;spatiotemporalevolution;regionaldiferences;obstaclefactor

一、引言及文献综述

当前，在全球经济放缓、单边主义抬头、中美贸易摩擦持续等多重因素作用下1，全球产业链供应链稳定性面临挑战。（剩余17287字）