出血性脑卒中后癫痫的危险因素分析及风险预测

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Abstractbjective：oexploretheindependentriskfactorsofepilepsyafteremorragicstrokeandtoconstructaiskpreictoodel andevaluateitsicacyMethods：ThepatietswithemorragicstrokehoereospitaidinTeFirstHospitalofYulinfoJauary 2014toDecember2024ereretrospectivelyincludedAllpatientsweredividedintothetraininggroupandtheextealvalidationgroupat difrenttimeperiods，andthedatawasdividedintothepatientwithepilepsygroupandthecontrolgroupaccordingtopatientwithor withoutepilepsyocurrdMuiiateLgistcegressionweeusedtanaeteindependentrisfactorsndispredicodel wasconstructed.Thereceiveroperatingcharacteritic（OC）cuvecalibrationcureandlinicaldecision（DCA）curewerealiedto evaluatethediscriinatiocaibratioandclinicaleicacyoftmodel.Tegeneralizationabiltofthemodelwereeveluatedthough extemalvalidationandawebversionoftheomogamResuls：Atotalof286patietsereicludedit21asesintetrainnggroup， including91casesintepatientgroupand110casesinthecontrolgroup.heextealvalidationgroupconsistedof85casesding 34casesinthepatientgroupand51patintinthecontrolgroupMutiaiateogisticregressionanalysisshowedthathistoryofelnset epilepsy OR=14.629 95% Cl 4.854-44.091， P<0.001 ），bloodchlorine（ OR=1.078 95% CI 1.013-1.147， P=0.018 ），bloodphosphorus L OR=12.178 5 95% Cl 3.027-48.994， P<0.001 ），andfever（ OR=3.577 95% Cl 1.525-8.393， P=0.003 ）wereindependent risk factors. Basedonclinicalexperienceandpreviousstudies，hematomavoumeandcortexinvolvementwereincludedtoconstructariskprediction model.The area under the ROC curve（AUC） of this model in the training group was 0.795， 95% Cl 0.734-0.856，and the AUC in the external validation group was 0.909， 95% Cl 0.842-0.976.The calibration curves of both the training group and the external validation group were basically distributed along 45∘ diagonal.The DCA curve showed that there was a net benefit when the threshold probabilities were0.046-0803and28-99ltwasjudgedthroughextealverficationtattemodelshowedbetergenralizaionabiltyAweb versionofthenomogramcouldprovideaplatformforpatientstopredicteiskofepilepsytroughtheinputofrelevantdataConclusion： Theconstructionandvalidationofariskpredictionmodelforepilepsyafterhemorragicstrokewereconduciveforearlyscreningand prevention.

Keywordshemorrhagic stroke;epilepsy;independent risk factors; risk prediction model; Nomogram

目前，脑卒中是全球第二大常见的死亡原因，也是导致成人残疾的主要原因之一[1]，不仅给病人的生命健康构成严重威胁，还给家庭和社会带来了沉重的经济负担。（剩余11468字）