2019—2024年融水苗族自治县手足口病流行特征分析及发病趋势预测

打开文本图片集

中图分类号：R183.4；R512.5 文献标志码：A DOI：10.3969/j. issn.1003-1383.2025.12.009

【Abstract】ObjectiveTo explore theepidemiological characteristicsand incidence trendsof hand，footand mouth disease（HFMD）in RongshuiMiao Autonomous Countyfrom2019 to2O24，soas to provide referenceforthe preventionand control of HFMD in thelocalarea.MethodsThe incidence data of HFMD in Rongshui Miao Autonomous County from 2019 to 2024 werecollected，and descriptive epidemiological methodswereused toanalyzethe group characteristics，temporal distribution paternand spatial distributionof HFMD in Rongshui MiaoAutonomous County，andARIMA model was constructedbyR4.4.3 softwareto predict the trendof the incidenceof HFMD in 2025.ResultsA totalof 4740 HFMD cases were reported in Rongshui Miao Autonomous County from 2019 to 2024，with anaverage annual incidencerateof 150.81/1Oo Ooo.The incidence of the disease was mainly concentrated in children under 5 years old（ 83.42% ），with a male-to-female ratioof 1.39：1 .The peak of the incidence of the disease was from April to July and September to November，andthetopthreedistrictsoftheregionwiththeaverageannual incidencerateofHFMDwereRongshui Town，Xiangfen Town and Sanfang Town. The optimal model ARIMA（O，0，2） （0，0，0）12 was used to predict that the incidence trend was relativelystable in 2O25.ConclusionThe prevalence of HFMD inRongshui Miao Autonomous Countyfrom 2019 to 2024 has obvious temporal，spatial，andpopulationdistributioncharacteristics.Itisrecommended to increasethepublicparticipation and coverage of vaccination.

【Keywords】 hand，foot and mouth disease（HFMD）；epidemic characteristics；incidence trend prediction

手足口病主要是由柯萨奇病毒A组、肠道病毒71型（EV71）等肠道病毒引起的急性传染病[1]，其临床症状主要包括发烧、皮疹、口腔疱疹或溃疡等，发病后病情往往在短时间内快速发展，若未能早期识别并干预，可能会对患儿神经系统及呼吸系统造成严重影响，如脑炎、心肌炎等[2]。（剩余5831字）