基于MaxEnt模型预测烟草甲在全球的适生区

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Abstract：Inodertofurtherunderstandthedtributionandsuitablelivingenviromentof tobaccobetleandefectivelypreventand controlitsharmacordingtotheworlddistributiondataandenvironmentaldataofNicotianatabacum，the MaxEntnichemodel methodwasadoptedtopredictitspotentialsuitablerangeworldwide.Theresultsshowedthattheimportantenvironmentalfactorsaffecting tobaccdistributionweretheaveragetemperatureinthe wetestseason，theprecipitationintewarmestseasonandtheprecipitation in the coldest season.The single factor contribution rates of the three climate factors were 28.3% ， 26.3% ，and 24.6% ，respectively，witha cumulative contribution rate of 79.2% .Under the current climatic conditions，the highly suitable areas for tobacco were mainlydistributedinthecoastalareasofmidleandlowlatitudes，suchassouthemChina，Japan，asternanada，GaboninAfrica andsomecoutiiWesteurope（Geranenchelgidisseotlotetialitablereafobacowasot 3.97 × 107 km²，of which about 7.37×106km2 is a highly suitable area，accounting for about 18.57% . In China，it was mainly distributed inthesouthernprovinces，whileitwasrelativelylessdistributedinthareanorthoftheYelowRiver.From2O21to204Oandfrom 2041to2060，theareasoflowandhighsuitableareasincreasedsignificantly.Theincreasedhigh-fitnessareas weremainlyconcentratedineasteEurope，andtheincreasedlow-fitnessareaswereminlyconcentratedinUkraineandwesternRusia.Inonclusion theresultsof this studycanprovide importantreferencefortheeffective preventionandcontrolof tobaccobeetle.

KeyWords：MaxEnt;Lasiodermaserricorne;very suitablearea;influencefactor

烟草甲（Lasioderma serricorne）属鞘翅目（Coleoptera）窃蠹科（Anobiidae），原产于美洲，现全世界广泛分布，为世界性仓储害虫。（剩余10602字）