黑龙江省土地利用监测及预测

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中图分类号：S757 文献标识码：A DOI：10.7525/j.issn.1006-8023.2025.06.002

Land Use Monitoring and Forecasting in Heilongjiang Province

LI Haonan1， YU Ying1.2*， YANG Xiguang'，FAN Wenyi1.2 （1.CollegeofForestryNortheastForestryUniversityHarbin5o，China；2.KeyLaboratoryofSustainableForestEcostem Management，Ministry of Education，Harbin15oO4O，China）

Abstract：Landisan indispensable partof human life.Theanalysis of landuse status is helpful to deplyunderstand the relationship between environmental conditions and economic development，and toachieve amore reasonable land use model.Predicting futurelanduse willhelp improve the sustainable management ofland resources and provide a scientific basis forassessingcarbon potential.Taking Heilongjing Province as theresearch area，thecurent situationof landuse in Heilongjiang Province from 20o to 202O wasanalyzed，and thepatch-generating land use simulation （PLUS）model coupled with the long short-term memory（LSTM）model wasadopted to simulateand predictthe land use situation in Heilongjiang Province in 2O30.Theresultsshowed that：1）The Kappa coefficient for verifying the PLUS-LSTMmodel was O.878.The relative simulation erors ofthesix land types （cultivated land，forestland，grassland，water area，construction land，and unused land）were all less than 15% .Compared with the traditional model，it hadhigheraccuracyandcanbeused to simulate the land usesituation in Heilongjiang Province in 203o.2）Compared with 2020，the areaof forest land，grassland，water area，andconstruction land in Heilongjiang Province would increase in 2O3O.Among them，the change rate of construction land was the highest， 8.57% ; the area of forest land increased by 2584.26km2 ，mainly in the central region；the expansion of grassland was mainly in the southwest.The area of cultivated land and unused land decreased，and the unused land changed the most，with a change rate of （204号 29.68% ：

Keywords：Heilongjiang Province;land utilization;monitoring;forecasting;long short-term memory model（LSTM）

收稿日期：2025-03-19

基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（32471855）；碳中和专项科学基金项目（HFW220100054）。（剩余18556字）