冲击载荷下含腐蚀缺陷海底油气管道可靠性分析

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中图分类号：TE83文献标识码：ADOI：10.12473/CPM.202407019

ZengWei，Tian Xumin，Zheng Jilin，etal.Reliability analysis of subsea oiland gas pipelines withcorrosiondefectsunderimpact loading[J].China PetroleumMachinery，2O25，53（7）：104-111.

ReliabilityAnalysisofSubseaOilandGasPipelineswith Corrosion Defects Under Impact Load

Zeng WeiTian Xumin Zheng Jilin Zhu Dongrun （SchoolofMechanical Engineering，Xi'an Shiyou University））

Abstract： Subsea pipelines are“lifelines”of offshore oil and gas transportation，and their reliability directly affcts thesafetyof underwateroiland gas exploitation.Consideringthat the in-service subsea oil and gas pipelines are subjected to the corrosion byoil and gas in the pipelines，but also to the impactof falling objectsat sea，a damage analysis model for subsea pipelines with corrosion defects under impact load was constructed，and a Kriging（KG）prediction model for damage analysis of subsea pipelines with corrosion defects under impact load was establishedto addresstheisueof lowanalysis efficiency.Onthis basis，areliabilitycalculation method for subsea pipelines with corrosion defects based on the function response value KG prediction model was proposed，and the influences of impact velocity，pipeline burialdepth and pipeline corosiondepth on thereliabilityof subsea oil and gas pipelines were investigated.The results showthat the reliabilityof subsea oil and gas pipelines decreases with the increase of the impact velocity of faling objects and the pipeline corrosion depth：the reliability is 100% when theimpact velocity isless than 11m/s ，and decreases to 95.02% when the impact velocity is 13m/s ;andit is 100% when the pipeline corrosion depth is less than 5mm ，and decreases to 92. 07% when the pipeline corrosion depth reaches 7mm.Onthecontrary，the reliabilityof subsea oil and gas pipelines increases with the increase of pipeline burial depth：the reliability is 100% when the pipeline burial depth is 0.6m .The research conclusions can provide a reference for the design and maintenance of subsea oil and gas pipelines.

Keywords：subsea oil and gas pipeline;impact load;corrosion defect; Kriging model;reliability analysis

0 引言

海底油气管道将深海油气资源与陆地油气生产系统紧密相连，被誉为海洋油气输送的“生命线”，其一旦发生失效将会造成严重的经济损失和海洋生态环境污染[2]，因此，进行海底管道可靠性评估对保证海洋油气生产安全具有重要意义。（剩余11731字）