中国可再生能源分区域消纳潜力研究

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摘要：目前，光伏发电、风电的装机规模均已超越水电，二者合计装机规模已超过煤电，成为电力装机主体。在分析我国可再生能源发展现状的基础上，以光伏发电、风电为主要研究对象，设计可再生能源开发潜力晴雨模型，对未来一段时间我国可再生能源开发环境和运行情况进行综合预测评价，分区域定量分析可再生能源消纳潜力。

关键词：可再生能源；消纳潜力；分区域；晴雨模型

中图分类号：TP308 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1008-9500（2024）09-00-03

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Research on the Regional Consumption Potential of Renewable Energy in China

YU Yanlong1， LIU Jiaqi2， ZHANG Yuqing3， WANG Xinhao3，4， LYU Lanchun3，4

（1. China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute， Beijing 100120， China;

2. Guohua Energy Investment Co.， Ltd.， Beijing 100007， China;

3. Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute Tsinghua University， Chengdu 610218， China; 4. Tsinghua University，Beijing 100084， China）

Abstract： At present， the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation and wind power has surpassed hydropower， and the combined installed capacity of the two has surpassed coal-fired power generation， becoming the main body of power installation. On the basis of analyzing the current development status of renewable energy in China， this article focuses on photovoltaic power generation and wind power as the main research objects， designs a potential sunshine-rain model for renewable energy development， and comprehensively predicts and evaluates the development environment and operation of renewable energy in China in the future. It quantitatively analyzes the consumption potential of renewable energy in different regions.

Keywords： renewable energy; consumption potential; regional division; sunshine-rain model

在“双碳”背景下，电力行业实施低碳转型将助力降碳减排，推动能源结构优化升级，促进可再生能源发展。（剩余3167字）