时间序列统计法预测中国页岩油开采技术发展趋势

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中图分类号：TE349 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-7393（2025）-02-0255-10

Abstract：Mostoftheresarchontentsndmethodsforshaleoilextractioareborrowedfromconventioaloilresevoisatpresent Although improvementsandadjustmentshavebenmadeaccordingtothecharacteristicsofshaleoil，theystillcanotbe fully applied，whichts teveloptfecy.oretan9literatureselatedtoaleilandigtiletracteieed， and50literatures ithstrongepresentativenessandgoodinnovationintechnicalcontentwerecaefullyselected.Aording tothe problems orpurposesinvolvedinteresearch，26literaturesarerelatedtoi-displacingmedia，15literaturesaeaboutheicr mechanism，and5literaturesareontheevaluationofdevelopmentbenefts.TheARIMA（1，0，1）modelisusedtopredictthe developmenttrendoftheresearchdirectionofshaleoilextractioninthenext5years.Atthesametime，theresearchhotspotsare optimizedthroughthefrequencystatisticsmethd.Itisfoudthatamongthe22typesofresearchcontents，fourtypes，amelywater flooding for oil displacement， CO2 huff and puf oil recovery， evaluation of huff and puff and displacement， and the conditions for oil andgasproduction，aretheotresearchdirections.Amongthe21typesofeytechologies，sixtypes，amelywateruffadpuff experiments， software production capacity prediction， numerical simulation of oil reservoirs， CO2 huff and puff experiments， PVT and miscibility experiments，and moleculardynamicssimulation，arethemainresearch methods.Using mathematical methodsfor scientificcalculationandreasonablepredictioncanaccuratelyandquantitativelygraspthefutureresearchhotspotsandtechnological development directions ofshale oil extraction， which helps researchers clarify theresearch focus and avoid blind exploration.

Keywords：shaleoilextraction;researchhotspots;technicalmethods;keytechologies;developmenttrend;statistialmetod

0 引言

在自然资源部最新评估中，中国页岩油地质资源潜力为397.46亿t，可采资源潜力为34.98亿t。（剩余20871字）