Weather Determines Economic Outcomes天气决定经济形势

Soon it will be even more important.

很快，天气将变得更加重要。

“Now the rains had really come，” writes Chinua Achebe， in Things Fall Apart， a novel set in 19th-century Nigeria， “so heavy and persistent that even the village rainmaker no longer claimed to be able to intervene. He could not stop the rain now， just as he would not attempt to start it in the heart of the dry season， without serious danger to his own health.” In agrarian economies of the sort depicted in Achebe’s novel， the economic cycle and weather move in tandem. When the rains arrive at the right time， the harvest is bountiful and prosperity follows. In contrast， drought brings the risk of starvation and death. The rainmaker—much like the modern-day central banker—may attempt to smooth out the business cycle， literally dampening things down when they get too hot. Ultimately， though， it is the power of nature that decides the outcome.

非洲作家钦努阿·阿契贝在其以19世纪尼日利亚为背景创作的小说《瓦解》中写道：“现在雨真的来了，雨势之大、之持久，连村里的雨师都不再声称能干预。（剩余6812字）