三门峡红富士苹果始花期预测模型研究

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摘要：为了提高三门峡红富士苹果始花期预测水平和花期冻害防御能力，本研究分析了气象因子与苹果始花期之间的关系，依据不同数据组合，利用回归法建立了4种始花期预测模型。结果表明：3月中旬平均气温、下旬平均气温、3月平均气温、≥0℃积温、≥3℃活动积温和有效积温、≥5℃活动积温和有效积温与始花期呈明显的负相关；

关键词：三门峡市；红富士苹果；始花期；预测模型

中图分类号：S661.1文献标志码：A论文编号：cjas2021-0102

Sanmenxia Red Fuji Apple： Prediction Model of the First Flowering Date

JI Zhihong1，2， LIU Xiaoying1，3， ZHANG Yanyan2， CAO Suya2

（1Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Application Technology， Zhengzhou 450003， Henan， China； 2Sanmenxia Meteorological Bureau， Sanmenxia 472000， Henan， China； 3Henan Meteorological Service Center， Zhengzhou 450003， Henan， China）

Abstract： In order to improve the prediction level of the first flowering date of Red Fuji apple in Sanmenxia and enhance the variety’s tolerance to freezing injury during flowering period， the relationship between meteorological factors and the first flowering date was analyzed in this study. According to different data combinations， four prediction models of the first flowering date were established by regression method. The results showed that the average temperature in mid-March， the average temperature in late March， the average temperature in March， the≥0℃accumulated temperature， the≥3℃active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature， the≥5℃active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature were significantly and negatively correlated with the first flowering date. The

Keywords： Sanmenxia City； Red Fuji apple； first flowering date； prediction model

0引言

三门峡属暖温带半干旱内陆性气候，年平均气温14.1℃，年降雨量568.3 mm，年日照时数2091.4 h，全年无霜期211天，平均相对湿度61%，最冷月（1月）平均气温-0.1℃，最热月（7月）平均气温26.6℃。（剩余6616字）