内镜逆行胰胆管造影术后并发胰腺炎的风险因素及预测模型构建

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Risk factors of complication of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography and construction of prediction model

YAO Jianhong， CHAI Bao， CAO Xiangjun， XU Meixin， ZHU Qingjiao

Shanxi Bethune Hospital（Tongji Hospital of Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences）， Shanxi 030032 China

Corresponding Author  CHAI Bao， E⁃mail： chaibaocb@126.com

Abstract  Objective：To explore the risk factors of complication of pancreatitis endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography（ERCP），and to construct a prediction model.Methods：The clinical data of 404 inpatients who underwent ERCP in our hospital between 2019 and 2021 were retrospectively collected.According to the presence or absence of PEP， the patients were divided into PEP group and non-PEP group.Univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were performed.A risk prediction model was constructed， and its predictive performance was verified.Results：Among the 404 patients，41 were complicated with postoperative pancreatitis，and the incidence of ERCP pancreatitis was 10.15%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that pancreatitis history， pancreatic duct visualization，EST，intubation difficulty and putting guide wire into the pancreatic duct frequently were influencing factors of PEP（P<0.05）. A prediction model was constructed based on multivariate logistic regression analysis results，and the ROC curve analysis showed that the sensitivity，specificity and the area under the curve （AUC） of the model were 75.61%， 84.30% and 0.804 （95%CI：0.762⁃0.841）.The overall accuracy rate of the model was 83.17%.Conclusion：Pancreatitis history， pancreatic duct visualization，EST，intubation difficulty and putting guide wire into the pancreatic duct frequently are risk factors of PEP. The prediction model constructed based on these factors has good predictive performance， which can provide reference for early clinical identification of high-risk patients.

Keywords    endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography； complication； pancreatitis； risk factors； prediction model

摘要  目的：探究经内镜逆行胰胆管造影术（ERCP）后并发胰腺炎的风险因素，并构建预测模型。（剩余10158字）