预测肾脏血管平滑肌脂肪瘤自发性破裂出血风险列线图模型的建立与评价

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（新疆医科大学第一附属医院泌尿外科，新疆乌鲁木齐 830054）

A nomogram model for predicting spontaneous rupture and bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma

HOU Yakun，ZHOU Xingyu，GAO Yu，SONG Hongwen，LIU Qiang，WANG Yujie，WANG Wenguang

（Department of Urology，

The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University，Urumqi 830054，China）

ABSTRACT：Objective To establish a risk model for predicting spontaneous rupture bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma （RAML） in order to better assess and deal with the risk.Methods The information of 436 RAML patients diagnosed during Jan.2018 and Dec.2022 was retrospectively analyzed.According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria，216 patients were included and divided into the rupture bleeding group （n=35） and non-rupture bleeding group （n=181）.The factors influencing spontaneous rupture bleeding were identified using univariate and multivariate analysis，and a nomogram was constructed accordingly with R language.The nomogram was evaluated using Calibration curve and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve （AUC）.Results It was found that clinical manifestations，tumor diameter，tumor convexity，tumor blood supply，and tuberous sclerosis complex （TSC） were significantly correlated with rupture bleeding.The Calibration curve fitted well with the nomogram.The AUC was 0.956 （95%CI：0.856-0.943），indicating that the nomogram had good statistical performance.Conclusion The model can effectively predict the risk of spontaneous rupture bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma.

KEY WORDS：renal angiomyolipoma；spontaneous rupture bleeding；nomogram；risk model；renal impairment

摘要：目的 建立并评价预测肾脏血管平滑肌脂肪瘤（RAML）自发性破裂出血的风险模型，帮助临床更好地评估患者疫情与应对风险。（剩余7478字）