基于WeibulI分布的两阶段加速寿命试验模型

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关键词：加速寿命试验；两阶段模型；Weibull分布；失效率；极大似然估计 图分类号：TB114.3；V216.5 文献标志码：A DOI：10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.06.22

Abstract：Aerospace products will go through multiple task stages in their life cycle.The existing accelerated life test（ALT） models are mainlyaimed ata single task stage，so it is dificult to establish a relationship between the failure distribution of products under diferent stages.In this paper，two-stage ALT model with Weibulldistribution is proposed.Assuming that the product life follows theWeibull distribution with different shape parametersand scale parameters in the two stages of ALT.On the basis of the tamper failure ratemodel，a flexible failure rate idea is introducedand two-stageALTmodel is constructed to connect thefailure distribution of products under diferent stresses.The model parameter estimationanalysis is carried outbased on the maximum likelihood estimation（MLE）theory under time censoring.The MLE，asymptotic confidence intervaland Bootstrapconfidence intervalof themodel parametersare obtained.The Monte Carlo simulation and the two-stage ALTdata ofacertain typeof electrical connector are used to verify the model.The results show that the proposed model can effectively describe the life distribution of products in the two-stage ALT，reflecting the influence of thefirst stage test on the second stage test，whose life prediction accuracy is higher than that of the single-stage ALT model. The proposed model provides a new idea for the ALTresearch of products containing multiple task stages.

Keywords：accelerated life test（ALT）；two-stage model；Weibull distribution；failure rate；maximum likelihood estimation （MLE）

0 引言

当今航空、航天产品呈现出高可靠、长寿命发展趋势，正常条件下很难在短时间内获得足够的失效信息以评估其寿命，加速寿命试验（acceleratedlifetest，ALT）成为该类产品寿命评估的一种常用方法，在可靠性领域备受关注[1-3]。（剩余13471字）