融合N-K模型和BN模型的露天矿滑坡风险耦合分析
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中图分类号：TD824.7 文献标志码：A
Coupledanalysis of landslide risk in open-pit mines integratingN-K modeland BN model YUAN Liweil，ZHOU Yu1 ，NIE Binren²，LIUDingshuai²，LI Sumin³ （1.Faculty of Public Safetyand Emergency Management， Kunming University of Science and Technology， Kunming 650093，China；2.Yunnan Xiaolongtan Mining Bureau Co.，Ltd.，Kaiyuan 661600，China; 3.FacultyofLandResourcesEngineering，KunmingUnversityofienceandTechnology，Kunming65o93，China）
Abstract：Existing coupled-causation analyses of landslideacidents in open-pit mines lack quantitative characterizationand inference of the coupling relationshipsamong risk factors，such ascoupling strength and sensitivityofrisk factors，which havecertain limitations forcoupled riskanalysisoflandslides inopen-pit mines. Toaddress this issue，acoupledanalysis methodforlandsliderisk inopen-pitmines thatintegratedtheN-K model and the Bayesian Network （BN） model was proposed.First，byanalyzing 51officiallyreported landslide accident cases inopen-pit mines，the direct causesofthe accidents were classifiedand summarized，and human factors， environmental factors，mining equipment factors，management factors，andtypes of riskcoupling were defined. Then，the N-K model was constructed to explore the coupling relationships and coupling mechanisms among risk factors.Finally，thecalculationresultsof theN-Kmodelwere integrated intotheBNmodel toconduct forward and backward inference and to analyze the sensitivity of risk factors. The results showed that the risk coupling type with the highest probability of causing landslide accidents in open-pit mines was the "human-environmentmanagement" coupling， with a probability of 37.32% ；the "human-environment-equipment-management" coupling had the highest risk coupling value， approximately 0.26， with an occurrence rate of 29.60% . Based on the findings， the study suggests that environmental risk factors and management risk factors should be taken as the entry points for systematic and overallcontrol of landslide risks inopen-pit mines，so as to prevent the joint effectsand chain effects among risk factors and tocut offthe coupling relationships among themas much as possible， thereby reducing the occurrence rate of landslide accidents in open-pit mines.
Key words： open-pit mines; landslide accident; N-K model; BN model; landslide risk coupling analysis; risl factor coupling strength; risk factor sensitivity
0引言
在全球经济增长放缓、地缘政治冲突加剧、能源转型加速等多重因素的影响下，矿产资源市场呈现出复杂多变的特点[1]。（剩余12549字）
