航空搜救范围与成功概率研究

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摘 要：从遇险对象分布情况和理想发现概率分析入手，对影响航空搜索的修正因素、扫视宽度以及可搜索范围进行了解读，全面梳理了实际发现概率、成功概率、包含概率和累积成功概率，为航空搜救行动中搜救范围的确定以及搜索成功概率的分析提供了有效手段和支撑。

关键词：航空搜救；搜索范围；发现概率；成功概率

中图分类号：V528

文献标志码：A

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1673-3819.2023.04.008

Research on the scope and successful probability of aerial SAR

WANG Lei， WEN Siying

（Xi'an Flight Academy of the Air Force，Xi'an 710061，China）

Abstract：Starting from the analysis of the distribution of objects in distress and the probability of ideal discovery，the correction factors affecting aerial search，the width of the scan and the searchable range are comprehensively interpreted，and the actual discovery probability，success probability，inclusive probability and cumulative success probability are comprehensively sorted out. It provides effective means and support for the determination of the scope of search and rescue in aviation search and rescue operations and the analysis of the probability of successful search.

Key words：aviation SAR; search scope; probability of discovery; probability of success

航空搜救行动对时效性要求较高，需要利用航空搜救平台的机动性优势，尽快到达遇险地域介入和处置，从而快速地发现和定位遇险对象。（剩余6437字）