考虑多解释变量共线性的混凝土桥建设期碳排放测算方法

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中图分类号：U448.33 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2096-6717（2025）06-0214-10

Abstract：Concrete bridges，as critical components highway construction，generate substantial carbon emissions during their construction phase，necessitating the development a relatively precise carbon emission estimation model to promote low-carbon construction practices.The present study categorizes the sources carbon emissons during the construction highway concrete bridges into material production，transportation， f-site processing，and on-site construction.The carbon emission factor method is employed to calculate the carbon emissions during the construction period 31 concrete bridges on anewly built expressway.An analysis carbon emissioncharacteristicsand their correlations reveal that factors such as bridge length，total material weight，and machinery working hours significantly influence emisions during bridge construction.The Spearman correlation coeficients for these factors are O.96，O.88 and O.82，respectively，with colliearity observed among them.Employing these variables，ridge regression，Lasso regression，and elastic net regression models were developed to mitigate collinearity.The Lasso regression model demonstrates the highest accuracy in estimating carbon emissions，with an R2 O.976 2，thus making it the preferred model for estimating emissions during bridge construction. This model can calculate the carbon emissions for a variety design and construction plans concrete bridges based on bridge length and total material weight，serving as a methodological reference for the development low-carbon designs and the optimization carbon reduction strategies during the construction process.

Keywords： concrete bridge；carbon emissions；construction period;Lasso regression；ridge regression；elastic network regression

近年来，随着高速公路新改建里程持续增加，其建设产生的碳排放越来越受到重视。（剩余15429字）