库水位变化和降雨联合作用下黑水河岸坡稳定可靠度分析

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中图分类号：TU43 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2096-6717（2025）06-0043-09

Author brief：ZHANG Wengang （1983-），PhD，profesor，mainresearchinterest：reliabilityanalysis ingeotechnicalengiring， E-mail： zhangwg@cqu.edu.cn. GU Xin（corresponding author），PhD，E-mail： guxin@cqu. edu.cn

Abstract：Current slope stabilityanalysis underthe combined effects of reservoir water level and rainfallis estimated commonly via the deterministic analysis methods.However，these methods cannot accurately evaluate the slope stability due to the inherent spatialvariability of geotechnical parameters. Therefore，in this study，the slope stability influenced by reservoir water level and rainfall is analyzed based on the monitored data during an annual cycle of rainfalland reservoir water level，taking the bank slope of Heishui River in Baihetan reservoir area as an example.Firstly，the three most unfavorable cases are determined through deterministic analysis. Accordingly，the influences of stationaryand non-stationary random fields onthe results of slope reliability analysis are compared using the stochastic finite diference method （RFDM），considering the spatial variability of effective cohesion c' ，effective friction angle φ′ and saturated permeability coefficient ks ，respectively. Results show that，compared with the rainfall infiltration，the reservoir water level fluctuation plays a crucial role in slope stability，and the minimum safety factor occurs during the rapid drawdown.Meanwhile，the combined effects ofrainfalland reservoir water level would significantly increase the slope failure probability and sliding volume.In addition，the depth-dependent characteristics of geotechnical parameters require to be considered when conducting stochastic analyses of slope stability，otherwise the slope stability would be underestimated.

Keywords： slope stability；slope reliability； reliability analysis；non-stationary random fields

近年来，中国西南地区兴建了许多大型水电站，如锦屏I级、白鹤滩等水电站，水电站的建设与运营在带来巨大经济效益的同时，也会诱发滑坡等地质灾害。（剩余13740字）