随机降雨下考虑参数空间变异性的边坡稳定概率分析

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中图分类号：P642.22 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2096-6717（2025）06-0021-11

Abstract：Accurate probabilistic stability analysis of slopeunderrainfall efects requires acomprehensive consideration of both the randomness of rainfall and the spatial variability of soil parameters.However，existing studies typically focus ononly one of these factors.To addressthis，a method for probabilistic stability analysis of slope that simultaneously considers both factors has been proposed.The Karhunen-Loeve expansion method is employed to simulate the spatial variabilityof soil parameters，while a bounded random cascade model is used to simulate the randomness of rainfall.The generated rainfalltime series is ten appliedas the upper boundary condition for the seepage and stability analysis of the slope，followedby the calculation of slope failure probability using the Latin Hypercube Sampling （LHS） method. Analysis is conducted using the landslide in Juanxuan Village，Suichuan County，Ji'an City，Jiangxi Province，asa case study.The results indicate that the probability analysis resultsof slope stability obtained byconsidering both random rainfall and spatial variability of soil parameters are consistent with engineering practice.The continuous infiltration of water stored in the terraced fields atthe top of the slope gradually expands the influential range of the slope’s pore water pressure of the slope，while the increase in pore water pressure gradually diminishes，ultimately approaching zero.In comparison to rainfall infiltration，the influ of rainfall redistribution on slope stability is marginal.

Keywords： slope stability；random rainfall；spatial variability；rainfall infiltration

降雨诱发滑坡是常见的地质灾害[]。（剩余18809字）