输尿管结石病人术后发生尿源性脓毒症的风险预测模型构建及验证

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Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for postoperative urogenic sepsis in patients with ureteral calculi

ZHANG Suqiong，HE Dapeng，ZHAO Xiaoyan

Guangyuan Central Hospital，Sichuan 628000 China

Corresponding AuthorHE Dapeng，E-mail：13808127402@163.com

AbstractObjective：To construct a risk prediction model for postoperative urogenital sepsis （US） in patients with ureteral calculi based on the column-line diagram model，and to validate it.Methods：600 ureteral calculi patients admitted to our hospital from October 2017 to October 2020 were selected as the model group，and 110 ureteral calculi patients admitted to our hospital from November 2020 to July 2022 were selected as the validation group.Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for postoperative US，and then a line drawing risk warning model for postoperative US in ureteral calculi patients was constructed and verified for its predictive efficacy.Results：Among 600 ureteral calculi patients，50 cases had US，with an incidence rate of 8.33%.Logistic regression analysis showed that gender，history of diabetes，duration of surgery，amount of intraoperative fluid instillation，calculi size，and positive preoperative mid-stage urine culture were the risk factors for postoperative US in ureteral calculi patients （P<0.05）.The area under the curve （AUC） of the receiver operating characteristic of the model and validation groups were 0.910 （95%CI 0.847-0.973） and 0.885 （95%CI 0.797-0.973）.Both sets of calibration curves were well fitted to the standard curve.Conclusion：Sex，history of diabetes，operation time，intraoperative fluid volume，calculi size，and positive preoperative mid-stage urine culture are the factors influencing the occurrence of postoperative US in patients with ureteral calculi.The columnar risk warning model of postoperative US in patients with ureteral calculi constructed based on the above mentioned factors in the present study has a high clinical application value.

Keywordsureteral calculi;urogenic sepsis;risk factors；columnar diagram;nursing

摘要目的：基于列线图模型构建输尿管结石病人术后发生尿源性脓毒症（US）的风险预测模型，并进行验证。（剩余7357字）