青海省绿色有机农牧业发展系统动力学仿真模拟分析

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Abstract：【Objective/Meaning】To simulate the impact policy system of green development in agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province， analyze the various variables affected by government policies， and provide theoretical basis for forming new quality productivity of green organic agriculture and animal husbandry， improving the efficiency of production factor allocation， formulating policies， and enhancing effectiveness.【Method/Process】Using the system dynamics analysis method， a quantitative relationship model was constructed using Vensim PLE software to simulate the green development and policy system of agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province. 【Results/Conclusions】 Based on relevant data from the Qinghai Statistical Yearbook from 2018 to 2022 and empirical data from existing literature research， when the growth rates of 17 production factors were set to 1.02 or 0.98 in the system simulation process， when the compound growth rate of the green agriculture cumulative measurement mechanism was greater than 1， it resulted in a positive increase in the total grain output and total meat output of the year compared to the previous year; On the contrary， when the compound growth rate is less than 1， it leads to a negative increase in the total grain production and total meat production compared to the previous year.

Key words： Qinghai Province； green development of agriculture and animal husbandry； system dynamics； AnalogueSimulation

在生态文明建设战略驱动下，省传统农牧业绿色有机发展方向明确清晰，农牧业绿色有机化发展的生态价值在市场中得到不断开拓，同时也面临生态产品价值实现框架下绿色生产力加快形成、产业融合发展、生态产业化、产业生态化等新发展格局的转型升级困境。（剩余11781字）