滨州市台风灾害风险评估与区划

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DOI：10.19513/j.cnki.hyqxxb.20241018001

Risk assessment and zonation of typhoon disasters in Binzhou

AbstractUsing the relevant data of 17 typhoon cases in Binzhou from 1978 to 2019，this study establishes an ArcGIS-based disaster risk assessment model to assess the risk of typhoon disasters，in order to provide scientific basis for the layout of regional industries and meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation. The results are as follows.（1） The typhoons affecting Binzhou typically occur from July to September，and the impact duration is 1-6 d，whose interannual variation shows an increasing trend. A total of 34 typhoon disastersare recorded inall counties（county-level cities or districts），with 19 in medium-high disaster grades，accounting for 58.82% .（2）The typhoon disaster risk index is larger in the southeast and lower in the northwest. Among them，the disaster risk index of the maximum wind speed （MW）shows a spatial distribution of larger values in the north and lower values in the south；both the disaster risk index of the maximum daily rainfallfor the process （MP）and the disaster risk index of the amount of precipitation （AP）distribute in a stepped pattern，characterized by larger values in the east and lower values in the west.（3）The analysis on the risk zonation of typhoon disasters for different disaster-bearing bodies in Binzhou indicates that the comprehensiverisk in thesoutheast is higher than that in the north，and higher-high risks are relatively concentrated，which isconsistent with the distribution of the typhoon disaster risk index.

Keywordstyphoon；disaster factor；risk assessment； risk zonation

0 引言

台风形成于热带或副热带暖洋面上，是一种强大的气旋性环流天气系统。（剩余8931字）