CMIP6气候模式对山东极端气温的模拟评估及未来情景预估

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Evaluation and projection of extreme temperature indices in Shandong by CMIP6 models

AbstractBased on CMIP6 climate modelsand CNo5.1 grid observation data，the simulation of the extreme temperature indices in Shandong by CMIP6 models is evaluated. Meanwhile，the changing trends of the future extreme temperature indices in Shandong under three shared socioeconomic pathways （SSPs）scenarios during diffrent time periods in the future are predicted，and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the extreme temperature indices under diffrent SSPs scenarios are explored in depth.The estimated results indicate that， compared with the base period from 1995 to 2014，the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature（TXx）and annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature （TNn） in Shandong will show an upward trend in the future，and the warming of TNn will be more obvious than that of TXx，while both the number of frost days（FD）and icing days （ID）will show a decreasing trend.From the perspective of spatial distribution，in the future，both the highest TXx and the lowest TNn（the lowest TXx and the highest TNn）will appear in the northwestern region of Shandong （the southeastern region of Shandong and Shandong Peninsula），and the number of FD and ID will be the largest in the northern region of Shandong.

KeywordsCMIP6 model； Shandong；extreme temperature index； evaluation; SSPs scenario projection

0 引言

近年来，随着全球气候变暖，极端天气与气候事件愈加频发，其强度也显著增加[1]。（剩余9750字）